Conference Realignment: Utah to Pac-?? Official

Utah has accepted the offer to leave the Mountain West Conference and join the (still currently named) Pac-10.  Here's an ESPN article about it.  Will the MWC try to add another team in their bid to make it into the "BCS" rankings?  Adding more teams doesn't necessarily help them get that BCS automatic qualifier unless they're strong football programs.  One name a guy over on bradleyfans.com mentioned was Fresno State out of the Western Athletic Conference, with might work okay.  The MWC commissioner, though, said today that the MWC is done expanding, at least this season.

That could all change though, if some of the rumors emerging from Texas are true.  Certain players in Texas want the Big XII to have its championship game (Jerry Jones, anyone?  Giant Texas stadium, anyone?) back.  That requires 12 teams by NCAA rules.  Jerry Jones is also a huge player in Arkansas athletics and so there's a new rumor that Arkansas could bolt the Southeastern Conference for the Big XII.  That'd be a strange move since the SEC has one of the highest conference payouts in the country and would have a team leaving a "buyer" conference for a (at least recent) "seller" conference.  Other programs with rumors making the rounds: Houston, TCU, SMU, and Memphis.  I haven't heard of anyone mentioning Tulsa, but why don't we throw them in the mix too.  Those moves could alternatively create "openings" in the SEC, Conference USA, or Mountain West... So this thing may still not be over, with the dominoes just falling slower than everyone thought a week ago.  Plus the Big Ten still looms large in my mind.

Conference Realignment: An Unsettling Calm

Well the immediate crisis has passed with Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State continuing to acknowledge that the Big XII (now with only ten teams) is where they will stay for at least a while.  The air went out of the balloon (even if I've represented that fact with a giant dirigible) and the media seems to have gotten the impression that all is well and we're done with this wave a realignment at least as far as huge adjustments are concerned.

I'm not exactly convinced for two reasons.  The Big XII has the same problems it always did, and in fact, they're a little worse now.  From what I can tell Texas now has gotten an even bigger slice of the revenue pie and while that's certainly made Texas happy how long will the other nine member schools of the newly misnamed Big XII stay content-- put another way, how long before the Pac-10(11, soon maybe 12) or SEC begin to offer those schools more money?  Plus, it's like we've all forgotten how all this started: the Big Ten being suspected of pillaging the Big East.  None of the developments regarding the Big XII really have any bearing on that... At least, not as far as I'm concerned they don't... What does the Big Ten care that the Pac-10 failed in its aggressive bid to wreck the Big XII.  The Big East is an easier target, in any case, and the Big Ten Network monster still needs feeding.  Anyway, we'll have to keep watching.  In other news, the Pac-10 has offered Utah and it's expected that Utah will accept, reducing the Mountain West back to its former size.  ESPN article here.

Conference Realignment: An MVC (Bradley) Megaconference Scenario?

Taking some time to consider megaconference scenarios that could include Bradley I've had trouble coming up with many that I think are particularly interesting, but an article at the Creighton Rivals (pay) site gives what I think to be a moderately realistic MVC scenario in which the Valley adds six basketball only teams to the conference to bring it to 16 teams.  The targets in that article are St. Louis, Dayton, and Xavier from the A-10, Butler from the Horizon League, and Marquette and DePaul from the Big East.

I don't think it's that far-fetched because I think if you can poach all six of those teams you have a conference attractive enough to get you a national TV deal that covers maybe 40% of your games... Or even maybe (this is a longer shot) a chance to partner with someone like Comcast (who hates the Big Ten Network) for a dedicated network.  The advantages in building a conference like that are that it would be a serious basketball contender, and likely send 4-6 teams to the Dance every year (if not a couple more in a big year), may command good TV money, would be quite strong in some other sports (particularly soccer), and has excellent geography.  The only problem I see is the obvious one of playing good enough chess to get the Big East teams to join you-- they don't make much money in the Big East and have to hate the travel, so maybe it's possible.

So how would it shake out?  I see a couple of options, but discount the Big East 16 teams all in one division model so that members can save some money with reasonable travel.  They are detailed below:

Two Division Solution

                                                           EAST (blue)                                               WEST (green)
                                                           Bradley                                                      Creighton
                                                           Butler                                                         Drake
                                                           Dayton                                                       Evansville
                                                           DePaul                                                       Missouri State
                                                           Illinois State                                                Northern Iowa
                                                           Indiana State                                              Saint Louis
                                                           Marquette                                                  Southern Illinois
                                                           Xavier                                                        Wichita State

You would play 18 conference games: 14 against your division mates (one home and one away) and 4 games against out of division opponents.  Problems with this alignment is the lack of games against your out of division opponents and a major gulf in conference strength between East and West.


Four Division Solution

                                                           NORTH (blue)                                            EAST (yellow)
                                                           Bradley                                                       Butler
                                                           DePaul                                                        Dayton
                                                           Illinois State                                                 Indiana State
                                                           Marquette                                                   Xavier

                                                           SOUTH (black)                                          WEST (green)
                                                           Evansville                                                    Creighton
                                                           Missouri State                                             Drake
                                                           Saint Louis                                                  Northern Iowa
                                                           Southern Illinois                                           Wichita State

In an arrangement like this one you'd play a home and away against each other team in your division and one game against each non-division team.  I think this gives you your best scheduling and would work out quite nicely.  You still have a monster of an MVC East in this one, but it's not as pronounced with more games being played outside of each division.

Conference Realignment Update: 6/14/10

Rumors are swirling each direction today with ESPN earlier reporting that Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma state set to abandon the Big XII for apparently brighter pastures in the Pac-10 and Texas A&M bound for the SEC.  However those rumors have been superseded by new rumors that the Big XII is now working overtime to try to keep Texas in the conference by promising a new bajillion dollar television deal for a 10-team conference that seems like it would pay Texas a bigger part of the pot.  It seems desperate to me,  and if I were a non-Texas school I'd tell the Big XII just where to stick it. 

The original story about the demise of the Big XII is here.
The new story over at ESPN is here.

Eamon Brennan has another relatively entertaining blog on the matter here.  Inside he considers what you'd call a 10-team Big XII.  How about Big X, but not "ten," actually vocalize "x."  Or something.

Anyway, if I can get the puppy to behave himself I'll be back to post some Missouri Valley ideas.

Conference Realignment: The Carnage Continues

Oh the humanity!

That should pretty much do it.  It was announced (here's an ESPN article) that Nebraska will leave the Big XII to join the Big Ten... Ironically this brings the Big Ten to twelve members and reduces the Big XII to ten teams.  There's a bizarre symmetry to that, I guess.  As was expected that means the Big XII is now completely dead (sounds like they're trying to sue everyone, by the way), and a "source" has told ESPN that Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. will accept offers to join the Pac-10 (Pac-15?) as early as tomorrow (June 11). Texas A&M, for their part, are being choosy and considering joining the Pac-87 or the SEC.  Be interesting to see what happens next... Could be nothing, could be Missouri to the Big Ten, or it could be the Big Ten deciding the Big East needs to get the Big XII treatment and they'll come after some mix of Syracuse, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, and mostly-affiliated Notre Dame.  What the hell, with everyone so drunk on megaconference deathdoom maybe they'll go after all of them plus Iowa State, Kansas, K-State, Baylor, Bradley, Florida Gulf Coast University, UC-Davis, St. Mary's School for the Blind, Alaska-Anchorage, Hawaii, Tokyo University, Erasmus in Holland, and the University of Mars Future Campus 2935 and become the Big Thirty (Big 3-Ten?).

In other news, Boise State has left the Western Athletic Conference for greener pastures in the Mountain West Conference.

Incidentally, anyone enjoy my very first custom artwork (a nod to a famous disaster and the famous Bradley Superfan)?

Conference Realignment: Colorado to Pac-10 (Pac-11?)

ESPN Article.

The video in that article also indicates that Texas Tech to Pac-10 via interview with Texas Tech's head coach.  IT'S ON!  At least as far as realignment goes.

Conference Realignment Articles

Just a couple of articles by Eamonn Brennan from ESPN that I thought were interesting:

Making College Hoops Weird

and

Conference Realignment: The Sad Reality

Conference Realignment: Nebraska to Big Ten Reported

Strong rumors and some reports coming out that Nebraska is ready to announce that they will move to the Big Ten.  This could be the first shot fired in the Megaconference war.  I had thought the Big East would be the one to splinter first because of all of the discontent among its members, but it turns out the Big XII may be the first conference to change.  If Nebraska (and the other strongly rumored Missouri) moves to the Big Ten and the Pac-10 pulls of the raid they've been rumored to be working on, the Big XII could cease to exist very very quickly.

Conference Realignment Update

Pac 10 rumors persist, now with reports of an apparent ultimatum issued from Big XII offices to Missouri and Nebraska to decide by friday... It's assumed that they would go to the Big Ten and that the Pac-10 would eat 4-6 other schools from the Big XII, including Big XII jewell Texas.   An ESPN report that the Pac-10 commissioner has been given the green light to begin exploring expansion options with a deadline for year end.  Most people seem convinced that these mega conferences are the foregone conclusion, while I remain convinced they are a fundamentally unsound idea.  I hold out some hope that becuase I think they are a bad idea that I'm not the only one and the media is running rampant with the mega conference idea while the conference leaders themselves see the issue a little differently.  It's hard, though, to ignore the media blitz, but at least the Pac-10 commissioner's comments in the ESPN don't indicate a particular lean.

It may be worthwhile, though, trying to figure out what would happen if you did see the end of the Big XII and/or Big East with the result being just a few football focused mega conferences.  Right now the BCS conferences contain 73 schools.  If the Big Ten were to take Missouri and Nebraska, as well as Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Pitt, it would grow to 16-- but reduce the Big XII to 10, and the Big East to 13.  If the Pac-10 then went wild and took Texas, TAMU, TT, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St from the Big XII, it would grow to 16 and the Big Ten would reduce to 4 teams.  At this point the Big XII is no longer a viable conference and remaining members Kansas, K-State, Baylor, and Iowa State would have to find a new home.  I think the Big East would also be very shaky at this point with only six football schools remaining (Cincinnati, UCONN, Louisville, Rutgers, USF, and West Virginia).  That asks a few questions-- namely, what happens to basketball only institutions such as the rest of the Big East and conferences like the Horizon League, CAA, A10 and the Missouri Valley, what will the SEC and ACC do, what will the Big East do about football, and what happens to the orphaned Big XII members?

My own overwhelming interest is in college basketball (and in particular, Bradley), and so I'm obviously worried about this.  If the Football Megaconference Concept is going to dominate college sports for a while then Bradley needs to find a spot at the table or they'll stand to lose a ton of money and put their assets to waste.  I'm convinced these megaconferences are patently bad for basketball, and really don't add anything as far as football goes.  I think the best two outcomes for Bradley would be to end up in (as I've advocated for a while) a "major" conference focused on non-football sports, or to be taken in as a basketball only school in a developing regional megaconference (maybe along with several MVC members in a conference with Kansas and Iowa State-- something that would require the MVC Football schools to probably go for FBS status).  I don't think that Bradley administration can afford to wait and hope but should actively be engaging the MVC on expansion opportunities OR looking for options outside of the MVC, as survival as a top 100 college basketball program has to be a critical objective for the university.

Pac 10 Expansion Threat!

Threat level on conference realignment just hit red and we're at DEFCON 2 or something like that. 

An internet report out of St. Louis indicates the Pac 10 may be targeting six schools in the Big XII.  This may just be more mega-super-mecha-streisand football conference stuff (which I still don't really see the appeal of) run amok, or it could be really rolling.  Couple that with efforts of the Big Ten to take members from the Big XII and you could really see the end of everything as we know it.  Honestly, no idea where this road lies, but I have this sneaking suspicion it'll ruin my college sports life if it comes to pass. 

Big Ten Expansion Warning

Threat Level: Orange.  :)

It's now being widely reported by radio stations all over that the Big Ten has extended offers to some mix of the following: Notre Dame, Nebraska, Missouri, and Rutgers.  The most reasonable sounding one to my ears indicates that Rutgers is a fall back in case the others don't go, but who knows.  The Big Ten has denied all of it, officially, and is claiming to still be on the 18-month time table outlined before.  That could be true, but with this level of cat-out-of-the-baggedness I have to think there's something going on.  It reminds me that I haven't yet spewed out more of my Grand Unification Theory of Conference Realignment on this blog-- something I commit to doing a better job of.

Conference Realignment: Mid-Majors and Conference Rankings

Before I can discuss the reasons why I think there is a likely to be a major wave of conference realignment and how I think this could be good news for fans of certain programs, it makes some sense to explain how the conferences stand today.  As I mentioned before, I spent some time putting some data together from a variety of sources to study Division I basketball conferences and I've used that analysis below.  I learned a few things.

Let's explore the concept of the term "mid-major."  It's one you'll have heard if you follow college basketball, and it's thrown around a great deal without much definition.  In reality it's an expression used to represent the "have-nots" of basketball.  The most accepted definition of mid-major is simply the program of any school that does not belong to one of the six BCS (stands Bowl Championship Series and represents the conferences that have automatic bowl appearances in college football), or Power, conferences.  There's a little bit of variability here... Nobody considers Memphis to be a mid-major, despite the fact that they are in the non-BCS Conference USA.  On the other hand, Gonzaga is still considered a mid-major despite competing year after year with the country's top programs.  Strangely enough, there are a handful of teams (Cincinnati and South Florida come to mind) that I think people consider mid-majors, but who are members of power conferences (in this case, the Big East).

I decided I didn't like this simplified definition, and set about looking through conference rankings.  I settled on Ken Pomeroy's ratings... Preferring them over RPI as more accurate, and over Sagarin ratings, because the data was more readily available.  The interesting thing I found was that there were clear demarcations between "levels."  I took Pomeroy's information from 2004-2009 and calculated the average conference rating for each conference over that period.  The interesting observation is that there tend to be very clear gaps between conference groups, so defined that a new group would form every time there was a difference of at least 2 in average ranking between two conferences.  That resulted in the following:

Group (Conference Count) - Conference (Avg. Ranking)
Power Conferences (6) - ACC (1.83), Big East (3.17), SEC (3.67), Big XII (3.83), Pac 10 (4.5), Big 10 (4.5)
High Major Conferences (4) - Mountain West (7.5), Missouri Valley (8.33), C-USA (9.33), A10 (9.83)
Mid Major Conferences (5) - WAC (12), WCC (12.33), Horizon (12.83), MAC (13.83), CAA (14.33)
Low Major Conferences (4) - Big West (17.17), Metro Atlantic (18), Sun Belt (18.5), Summit (19)
Minor Conferences (10) - Southern (20.67), Big Sky (21.83), America East (22.33), Southland (23), Ivy League (24.17), Patriot (24.67), Ohio Valley (24.83), Big South (25.67), Northeast (26.5), Atlantic Sun (26.83)
WTF Conferences (2) - MEAC (30.17), SWAC (30.83)
Unrated Conference (1) - Great West (created just this season)

Regarding the (in)appropriately titled WTF Conferences... I hated to be rude but the MEAC and the SWAC finished either last or second to last EVERY year of this study.  I don't really understand why people agitate for contraction in college basketball... More teams don't really hurt anyone, but these two conferences are very bad and maybe it should be considered as they never compete.  That being said they're both comprised entirely of HBCU's so that may be deemed insensitive or politically incorrect.

Introduction: NCAA Division I Conference Realignment

Over the preceding few months I've found myself more and more interested in (and maybe even totally captivated by) conference alignment, as it relates to football and basketball, in Division I of the NCAA.  I'm not sure where it came from, other than that I'm sure some poster's musings on Bradleyfans had to be related.  I started off innocently enough, imagining a conference of basketball-focused private universities in the Midwest striking out and forming a basketball (and soccer) focused power conference.  The interest had become something more when I unleashed a rambling drunken rampage on my brother and Dusty in Des Moines.  Then it proceeded straight into the obsession phase when I spent some great many hours creating a spreadsheet including all basketball teams that will compete at the Division I level for the 2010-2011 season. 

Now I will begin a series of posts/articles that will hopefully clearly convey my thoughts on scenarios for how this could occur and what some of the ramifications could be for college basketball in general and Bradley in particular.